Sarah Palin and the State of the GOP

Yesterday evening (at least in the UK) Sarah Palin announced she was not entering the race for the White House next year. 


First things first, I can't say I mind this. Any chance of Sarah Palin getting the presidency would not be pleasing. However, it does lead me to wonder, now that a figure particularly well-known to all has ruled herself out (and it wasn't a big shock, as not many voters indicated they would support her should she run), who is left to lead the Republicans in their campaign against Obama?
As a student of American politics, I take quite a big interest in the race, even throughout this current period - the invisible primary. For anyone who isn't aware what that term means, it is the part of the preparation for the general election which precedes the primaries (which in turn precedes the general election!), when any potential candidates raise money and name recognition before going before the voters when the primary season starts in Iowa next February. Usually there appears a frontrunner going into the primary season, but as of yet, I'm still not sure who it actually is.


Mitt Romney is perhaps the most obvious, although with such a large Tea Party movement in the 2010 congressional elections, he may be too centrist for many Republicans. Rick Perry may sweeten the conservatives, although some suggest on immigration and others he may not be conservative enough.  However, it isn't too late. Although the Republicans are still debating and scrutinising each other, it is still only the invisible stage of the primaries. If this is still happening in six months' time, the worry for them is that Obama will look more like a President. Which he is. 


The benefit (for the GOP) of Sarah Palin's announcement that she will not be running for President is that it ends the speculation and, although she hasn't already, she will be able to endorse somebody when the time is right. Thanks to the 2008 campaign and her time as Republican vice-presidential candidate, she now has some experience in campaigning and lots of name recognition and political force, and that weight behind any other candidate may well help. On the other hand, it may hinder the Republicans, as not everybody - and not even every Republican - is a massive fan; although she helped John McCain's campaign immediately post-nomination, she wasn't the most popular in all groups towards the end of the election.


Meanwhile, Obama challenging Republicans to back a bill on jobs? It's potentially a good move, and gives him a bit of an edge. As for the Republican presidential candidate, time will tell. Romney may be the best bet. But I for one must say that I am pleased Palin is keeping out of it. After all, she may have brought us into a new world order, if she were president, and then the Americans were to join forces with their North Korean allies...